Everything We Know about this Supreme Court

Batting Average

All-time average: Tom (0.709), Ruchit (0.648), AJ (0.554)

Current Term: AJ (0.754), Tom (0.728), Ruchit (0.446)

This page keeps track of our predictions on how the Supreme Court will decide cases before it. We are going to hold ourselves accountable by tracking the accuracy of those predictions. As a caveat, Supreme Court cases are a lot more complicated than a brief summary table can provide or can be predicted by saying one party or the other will win.1 All to say that this is a fun game and shouldn't be taken as anything other than a fun game.


  1. Sometimes, the Court will decide on issues completely unforseen in the briefings. Sometimes, the Court will vacate because of some thing the lower court did or did not do. Once in a blue moon, the Court will dismiss as improvidently granted. Nor can our 'Results' section adequately reflect what the Court actually did. For example, in Expressions Hair Design v. Schneiderman, the Court vacated and remanded because the lower court didn't adequately consider the First Amendment issue. Technically, the hairstylists won, but ultimately will they win on the free speech issue? Who knows. 

Term:
CaseEpisodeAppellant VictoryAppellee VictoryResult

Benisek v. Lamone1


  1. Can you challenge a partisan gerrymandered map based on a First Amendment retaliation theory? 

53

5-4 Reversal6-3 Reversal5-4 Benisek

National Institute of Family & Life Advocates v. Becerra1


  1. California passed a law to address crisis pregnancy centers who opposed abortion and who it believed were posing as medical clinics and providing inaccurate information to women about their abortion rights. For example, they are required to post notices about the availability of abortion services and a state number where women can get more information. Is this a violation of the First Amendment rights of these non-profits? 

52

6-3 Crisis Centers5-4 Crisis Center

6-3 Becerra/California6-3 California

Sveen v. Melin1


  1. Minnesota law revokes a spouses designation as a life insurance beneficiary upon divorce. Does that violate the Contract Clause of the Constitution? 

52

5-4 Sveen/Minnesota7-2 Sveen8-1 Sveen

9-0 Melin

United States v. Microsoft Corp.1


  1. Is an email provider who has been served with a warrant required to provide emails, even when the emails are stored exclusively outside the United States? 

51

9-0 United States7-2 United States6-3 United States

Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky1


  1. Does the Minnesota law banning political apparel at polling locations violate the first amendment? 

50

6-3 Voters Alliance7-2 Voters Alliance8-1 Voters Alliance

City of Hays, Kansas v. Vogt1


  1. Is the Fifth Amendment violated when a criminal defendant is compelled to incriminate himself and the incriminating statement is used in a probable cause hearing, rather than in in a criminal proceeding? 

49

7-2 City5-4 City

5-4 Vogt

Byrd v. United States1


  1. Does a driver have a reasonable expectation of privacy in a rental car when he has the renter’s permission to drive the car but is not listed as an authorized driver on the rental agreement? 

46

5-4 Byrd5-4 Byrd5-4 Byrd

Collins v Virginia1


  1. Does the Fourth Amendment’s automobile exception permit a police officer without a warrant to enter private property in order to search a vehicle parked a few feet from the house? 

46

7-2 Collins9-0 Collins

5-4 Virginia

Husted v. A. Philip Randolph Institute1


  1. Under 52 U.S.C. § 20507 can Ohio remove folks from the voter rolls by sending them a letter and waiting two cycles? 

46

5-4 Ohio

7-2 Institute5-4 the Institute

Christie v. National Collegiate Athletic Assn.1


  1. This case tackles the difference between commandeering and pre-emption. The federal government can pre-empt laws of the states, but it cannot take over the state and force states to do its bidding. If the federal government passes a law that prevents from repealing or modifying their laws banning sports betting, is that pre-emption or is that commandeering? The legal issue presented is: Does a federal statute that prohibits modification or repeal of state-law prohibitions on private conduct impermissibly commandeer the regulatory power of states? 

45

6-3 Christie7-2 Christie5-4 Christie

Patchak v. Zinke1


  1. This case raises a separation of powers issue: can Congress require the judicial branch to “promptly dismiss” a lawsuit in the middle of litigation when it doesn’t amend the underlying substantive or procedural laws? 

44

**9-0 Patchak**

*6-3 Zinke***7-2** *Zinke*

6-3 Appellee

Carpenter v. United States1


  1. Does the warrantless search and seizure of cell phone records, which include the location and movements of cell phone users, violate the Fourth Amendment? 

43

7-2 Carpenter9-0 Carpenter

5-4 U.S.

Marinello v. United States1


  1. Are you obstructing justice when you pay your lawnmower in cash knowing that he will not report that cash payment to the IRS? Stated another way, is a “cash only” business structure obstruction of justice? (Or, the legal issue: Does a conviction under 26 U.S.C. 7212(a) for corruptly endeavoring to obstruct or impede the due administration of the tax laws require that the government prove the defendant acted with knowledge of a pending Internal Revenue Service action?) 

42

**8-1** *Marinello***9-0** *Marinello***9-0** *Marinello*

7-2 Appellant

Masterpiece Cakeshop Ltd v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission1


  1. Does the application of Colorado’s public accommodations law to compel a cake maker to design and make a cake that violates his sincerely held religious beliefs about same-sex marriage violate the Free Speech or Free Exercise Clauses of the First Amendment? 

41

5-4 Cakeshop

6-3 Colorado5-4 Colorado

Class v. United States1


  1. Does a guilty plea inherently waive a defendant’s right to challenge the constitutionality of his conviction? 

40

**9-0** *Class***9-0** *Class***9-0** *Class*

6-3 Appellant

Jesner v. Arab Bank, PLC1


  1. Does the Alien Tort Statute prohibit corporate liability? 

37

5-4 Jesner

8-1 Arab Bank6-3 Arab Bank

Jennings v. Rodriguez1


  1. Do non-citizens have a right to bond hearings in immigration proceedings? And if so, does the Government have to prove by clear and convincing evidence that the non-citizen is not a flight risk? And should detainees get a bond hearing every six months automatically? 

36

**9-0** *ICE*

**5-4 Rodriguez****6-3 Rodriguez**

6-3 Appellant

Gill v. Whitford1


  1. Is there an articulable standard for regulate partisan gerrymandering? 

34

5-4 Whitford5-4 Whitford5-4 Whitford

Epic Systems Corp. v. Lewis1


  1. Does the National Labor Relations Act prohibit enforcement of an agreement requiring employees to resolve disputes with the employer through individual arbitration under the Federal Arbitration Act? 

33

6-3 Epic5-4 Epic9-0 Epic