All-time average: Tom (0.694), Ruchit (0.659), AJ (0.528)
Current Term: AJ (0.550), Ruchit (0.550), Tom (0.550)1
Methodology: For the vote score, We take the average of the votes we thought would go for the side that won divided by the votes that side actually got. We weight that 90% and weight the correct-result average at 10%. ↩
This page keeps track of our predictions on how the Supreme Court will decide cases before it. We are going to hold ourselves accountable by tracking the accuracy of those predictions. As a caveat, Supreme Court cases are a lot more complicated than a brief summary table can provide or can be predicted by saying one party or the other will win.1 All to say that this is a fun game and shouldn't be taken as anything other than a fun game.
Sometimes, the Court will decide on issues completely unforseen in the briefings. Sometimes, the Court will vacate because of some thing the lower court did or did not do. Once in a blue moon, the Court will dismiss as improvidently granted. Nor can our 'Results' section adequately reflect what the Court actually did. For example, in Expressions Hair Design v. Schneiderman, the Court vacated and remanded because the lower court didn't adequately consider the First Amendment issue. Technically, the hairstylists won, but ultimately will they win on the free speech issue? Who knows. ↩
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